- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-130) on Friday, July 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Red Sox are 53-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 47-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 6-1, 3.41 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 7-3, 3.93 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+23.90 Units / 299% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.45 Units / 138% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+15.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+11.90 Units / 170% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.80 Units / 39% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 35 away games (+15.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 away games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 90 games (+13.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.25 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.15 Units / 57% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 52-45 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 5.77% ROI).
- 53-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.66 Units / -0.49% ROI
- 47-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.11 Units / -6.59% ROI
- 49-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -2.64% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 47-49 against the Run Line (-1.98 Units / -1.72% ROI).
- 57-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.25 Units / 8.1% ROI
- 48-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 1.1% ROI
- 43-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.9 Units / -9.32% ROI
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of just .200 (9 Total Bases / 45 ABs) over the last 14 days — 3rd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .395 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .178 (8-for-45) against Lucas Giolito over the last 14 days — 7th best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 88th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has struck out 29% (8/28) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — tied for 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 83rd Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has a strike rate of 69% (138/200) over the last 14 days — tied for 4th highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 93rd Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .111 (5-for-45) against Colin Rea this month (2 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 97th Percentile.
Colin Rea had a strikeout rate of just 17% (50/285) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 17% (78 SO in 446 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 22nd — Brandon Walter has the longest active streak at 6.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 32-20 (.615) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Red Sox are just 5-178 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 9-87 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Cubs are 24-6 (.800) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Cubs are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Cubs are 56-16 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .273 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .243 (227 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Cubs are batting just .227 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Cubs hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Red Sox pitchers this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have picked-off 13 runners from first base this season — most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Cubs pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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