- The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Cubs Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Red Sox / Cubs TV Channel: FOX
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-150) on Saturday, July 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Red Sox are 53-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 48-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 6-3, 3.16 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 6-3, 2.65 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -115 | +125 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -105 | -150 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+22.90 Units / 254% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 64% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+14.75 Units / 184% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 36 away games (+14.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 away games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 91 games (+14.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+13.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.45 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 52-46 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 4.21% ROI).
- 53-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.66 Units / -1.23% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.21 Units / -7.53% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.7% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 48-49 against the Run Line (-0.38 Units / -0.33% ROI).
- 58-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 8.73% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.9 Units / -8.29% ROI
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .278 — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .630 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Brayan Bello when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 97th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .653 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga had a first-pitch in-zone of just 32% (7/22) in his last start — tied for lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 56% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Shota Imanaga’s pitches (1,990/3,616) since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed a BABIP of .193 this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has a strikeout rate of just 8% (5 SO in 66 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 9-88 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 54-174 (.237) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are 52-1 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Cubs are 31-16 (.660) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Cubs are just 2-28 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Cubs are 30-5 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .272 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .844 (365 PA’s) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Red Sox are batting .256 this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
The Cubs are batting .371 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Cubs hitters are slugging .236 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Cubs are batting .250 with two outs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have picked-off 13 runners from first base this season — most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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