Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 02, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (43-34) are -145 favorites vs the Cubs (31-46)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (3-1), 3.60 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Alec Mills (0-1), 9.86 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Boston Red Sox (-145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+120) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Chicago.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 43-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 39-38 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +105O 9.5 -115-145
Cubs +1.5 -130U 9.5 -105+120

Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 84.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 61% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.75 Units / 89% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+9.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+6.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +1200 0.5
Christopher Morel 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Ian Happ 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Christopher Morel 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +190 1.5 -275

Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Christopher Morel 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ian Happ 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Mills 2.5 -145 2.5 +100
Josh Winckowski 3.5 -125 3.5 -115
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 76 games (+4.95 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+15.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 42% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-34 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 9.97% ROI).

  • 43-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 3.25% ROI
  • 31-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -10.5% ROI
  • 37-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 4.61% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 39-38 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -5.05% ROI).

  • 31-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.7 Units / -14.77% ROI
  • 39-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.53% ROI
  • 36-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -8.09% ROI

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 8% (2/24) of left-handed batters he faced — 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .333 (7-for-21) against Josh Winckowski — tied for 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 12th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 16% (8/49) against Josh Winckowski on the first pitch of at-bats — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — fourth Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has not allowed a home run in any of the last 17.1 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 44.1.

Alec Mills: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed batters are hitting .335 (85-for-254) against Alec Mills since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .397 (77-for-194) against Alec Mills versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.

Alec Mills has allowed a slugging percentage of .879 (29 Total Bases / 33 ABs) — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .373 — first Percentile.

Alec Mills has allowed a slugging percentage of .569 (223 Total Bases / 392 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Red Sox are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Red Sox are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Red Sox are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Cubs are just 31-34 (.477) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Cubs are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Cubs are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Red Sox have scored first in 73% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Cubs are batting .408 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Cubs hitters are slugging .686 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 39 double plays in 275 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 589 strikeouts in 2,395 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH (1,914 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Cubs have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.