- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Red Sox vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Red Sox / Cubs TV Channel: NESN | MARQ
The Boston Red Sox (-135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+115) on Sunday, July 20, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
This season, the Red Sox are 53-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 49-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 10-4, 2.25 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Cade Horton 3-3, 4.50 ERA
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 7 -120 | -135 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 7 +100 | +115 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+21.90 Units / 219% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games at home (+13.75 Units / 153% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cade Horton has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 away games (+13.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 away games (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+6.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+15.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+14.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.45 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.15 Units / 60% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 52-47 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 53-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.66 Units / -1.95% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.31 Units / -8.45% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.77% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 49-49 against the Run Line (+0.97 Units / 0.83% ROI).
- 59-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.25 Units / 9.35% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -0.98% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -7.28% ROI
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Horton (CHC) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
18 of Garrett Crochet’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has 41 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 35% (63 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 74 of Garrett Crochet’s 148 sliders out of the zone (chase rate of 50%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .439 (18-for-41) against Cade Horton’s inside fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 0 Percentile.
33% of Cade Horton’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (19-for-59) against Cade Horton with runners in scoring position this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .246 — seventh Percentile.
Cade Horton has walked 6% of left-handed batters this season — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 86th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 9-89 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 5-180 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are 26-6 (.812) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .635.
The Cubs are 17-13 (.567) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (Ranks fifth runs scored) today.
The Cubs are 32-16 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .550.
The Cubs are 59-39 (.602) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .460 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Red Sox are batting .370 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Red Sox hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .239 (235 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs hitters are slugging .452 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Cubs are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Cubs hitters have 119 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (41%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.56 (88.0 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Batters facing the Red Sox pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 45% of the time over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Cubs pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
More MLB Reading:
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