Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (43-35) are -105 favorites vs the Cubs (32-46)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-3), 3.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-115) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 43-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-38 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +155O 8.5 -110-105
Cubs +1.5 -190U 8.5 -110-115

Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Ian Happ 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Christopher Morel 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Rafael Ortega 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Christopher Morel 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Ian Happ 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +120 0.5 -175

Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Keegan Thompson 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
Seabold 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 77 games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+14.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.55 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 46% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-35 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 8.85% ROI).

  • 43-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.78% ROI
  • 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.54% ROI
  • 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 5.7% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 40-38 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -4% ROI).

  • 32-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -13.16% ROI
  • 39-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.69% ROI
  • 37-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -6.81% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Keegan Thompson allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (tied for fourth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .125 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th best among qualified SPs)– 83rd Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (7/34) against Keegan Thompson — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Keegan Thompson has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Keegan Thompson — tied for 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 10th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Red Sox are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Red Sox are just 38-4 (.905) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .922.

The Red Sox are 23-19 (.548) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Red Sox are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Cubs are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

The Cubs are just 16-91 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .268 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Cubs are batting .403 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cubs hitters are slugging .643 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.

Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs hitters have 1,686 strikeouts in 6,565 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH (1,935 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 854 of 9,197 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.