- The Red Sox (43-35) are -105 favorites vs the Cubs (32-46)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-3), 3.34 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-115) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 43-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-38 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Thompson | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Seabold | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 49 games (+14.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+11.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 33 away games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 77 games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+14.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-35 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 8.85% ROI).
- 43-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 1.78% ROI
- 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.54% ROI
- 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 5.7% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 40-38 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -4% ROI).
- 32-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -13.16% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.69% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -6.81% ROI
–: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Keegan Thompson allowed a batting average of .360 vs right-handed batters (tied for fourth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .125 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th best among qualified SPs)– 83rd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 21% (7/34) against Keegan Thompson — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Keegan Thompson — tied for 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 10th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Red Sox are just 38-4 (.905) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .922.
The Red Sox are 23-19 (.548) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Red Sox are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cubs are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
The Cubs are just 16-91 (.150) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .268 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .403 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters are slugging .643 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have 1,686 strikeouts in 6,565 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH (1,935 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 854 of 9,197 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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