- The Red Sox are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Boston Red Sox (-150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 26-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 29-21 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +115 | O 8.5 +100 | -150 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -120 | +125 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 68.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+17.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 away games (+13.65 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+12.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 37 games (+11.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games at home (+8.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+8.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 27-23 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 2% ROI).
- 26-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 7.13% ROI
- 30-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.15 Units / 18.64% ROI
- 18-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.75 Units / -28.25% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 29-21 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 12.08% ROI).
- 29-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 16.76% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 1.62% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -9.06% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 53% (82/156) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an OBP of just .167 (54 PA’s) over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .947 (18 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .439 — first Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 38% (21 SO in 55 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .633 (50 Total Bases / 79 ABs) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .420 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (16/66) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of .985 (88 PA’s) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: .737 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (37/163) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Red Sox are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-20 (.130) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 4-14 (.222) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Diamondbacks are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.
The Diamondbacks are just 22-11 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Diamondbacks are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .438 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .392 (186 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .203 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .334 (1,301 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 250 strikeouts in 1,301 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 25% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 439 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 7% of innings played this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.03 (236.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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