- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on FOX
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 27-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 29-22 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -120 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 +100 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+16.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 36 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 away games (+9.60 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.30 Units / 81% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 51 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 43 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+6.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 28-23 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 3.94% ROI).
- 27-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 8.71% ROI
- 31-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.15 Units / 20.05% ROI
- 18-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -29.58% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 29-22 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 9.45% ROI).
- 29-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 14.9% ROI
- 26-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 22-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -10.77% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has walked 35 of 674 batters (5%) since the 2021 season — 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has walked 12 of 269 left-handed batters (4%) since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% — 93rd Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 68% (1,750/2,581) since the 2021 season — tied for 5th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has allowed a slugging percentage of .314 (111 Total Bases / 354 ABs) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .247 — 10th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 65% of the time (840/1,297) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (54/250) against Zach Davies with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 63% of the time (389/621) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Zach Davies’ fastballs (455/1,297) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are 11-18 (.379) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Red Sox are just 7-84 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Red Sox are just 3-20 (.130) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Diamondbacks are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are just 22-11 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Diamondbacks are 22-1 (.957) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .439 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .361 (1,018 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .396 (187 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .202 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/7,900) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 24% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 251 strikeouts in 1,313 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 448 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.2 MPH (1,284 batted balls) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 76% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
Bet now on Red Sox vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
