- The Red Sox are +100 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 28-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 30-22 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 +100 | +100 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -120 | -120 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 games at home (+9.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.35 Units / 83% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+8.40 Units / 62% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 51 games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 44 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 28-24 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 28-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 10.26% ROI
- 31-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.95 Units / 17.52% ROI
- 19-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.8 Units / -27.34% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 30-22 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 10.75% ROI).
- 29-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 12.92% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -8.82% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (39/66) against Tanner Houck this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (11/49) against Tanner Houck with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to May 2nd — Cristian Javier has the longest active streak at 7.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 16 of 115 right-handed batters (14%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .194 (39-for-201) against Merrill Kelly this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — 96th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .198 (18 Total Bases / 91 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has an ERA of 1.63 (27.2 IP) on the road this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.10 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .864.
The Red Sox are 21-23 (.477) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Red Sox are 4-21 (.160) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Diamondbacks are just 74-20 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Diamondbacks are 7-2 (.778) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 22-11 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .296 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Red Sox are batting .437 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/7,935) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .531 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 457 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 558 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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