- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Giants
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Giants starting pitcher: –
- Watch the game on FOX
The Boston Red Sox (-130) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (+110) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Giants Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 56-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 51-53 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -115 | -130 |
| Giants | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -105 | +110 |
Red Sox vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+14.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 away games (+13.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+13.55 Units / 104% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+17.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+17.55 Units / 73% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Casey Schmitt has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Giants vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Giants vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Giants vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Giants vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Walker | 2.5 +115 | 2.5 -155 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 90 games (+11.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+6.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+12.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 64 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games at home (+6.05 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 56-47 against the Run Line (+4.05 Units / 3.03% ROI).
- 56-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 5.66% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.28% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -8.57% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 51-53 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -4.2% ROI).
- 56-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -1.03% ROI
- 45-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.95 Units / -14.69% ROI
- 56-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.25 Units / 6.38% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .171 (31-for-181) against James Paxton this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OPS of just .455 (99 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .762 — 99th Percentile.
James Paxton has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to June 19th — Freddy Peralta has the longest active streak at 9.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .208 (96 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 100th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Walker’s K:BB ratio is 15.0 (15/1) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: 2.5 — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Walker has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (2 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Walker has walked 1 of 51 left-handed batters (2%) this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Walker has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (74/140) this season — 5th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 61% — fifth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Red Sox are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
The Red Sox are 19-7 (.731) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Red Sox are just 10-15 (.400) after a home loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Giants are 113-2 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Giants are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Giants are 4-43 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Giants are 80-56 (.588) after a win since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .395 (441 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .338 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .342 (5,077 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .191 on the road over the last 30 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .672 (1,151 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Giants are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Giants are batting .363 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 293 of 3,868 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 62 of 911 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 10 of 179 batters (6%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 4 of 209 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D15
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Knee, D10
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Thairo Estrada (Giants): Hand, D10
- Cole Waites (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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