- The Guardians (36-30) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (40-31)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (2-1), 3.68 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (3-3), 3.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-160) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 40-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-29 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -115 | +135 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -105 | -160 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.50 Units / 68% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 68% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.30 Units / 66% ROI)
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -160 |
| Josh Winckowski | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 42 games (+15.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+9.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 70 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 35 games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 35 games (+4.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 39-32 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 8.25% ROI).
- 40-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 3% ROI
- 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -13.75% ROI
- 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.29% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 37-29 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 7.84% ROI).
- 36-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 10.66% ROI
- 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.71% ROI
- 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -6.9% ROI
Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (12/21) against Josh Winckowski — tied for 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .125 (2-for-16) against Josh Winckowski versus the 2-3-4 hitters — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .264 — 93rd Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has allowed an OBP of just .125 (16 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (211/319) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.
Shane Bieber’s K:BB ratio is 8.4 (42/5) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has a strike rate of 69% (344/500) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (108/329) against Shane Bieber this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Red Sox are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Red Sox are 20-15 (.571) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Red Sox are just 126-19 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Guardians are 23-2 (.920) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Guardians are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Guardians are 25-3 (.893) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox have scored first in 80% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .261 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Guardians hitters have just 463 strikeouts in 2,503 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 319 strikeouts in 1,780 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 20% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (308.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.8 MPH (1,781 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Guardians pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Guardians pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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