Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 25

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (36-30) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (40-31)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (2-1), 3.68 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (3-3), 3.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-160) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 40-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 37-29 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -150O 8.5 -115+135
Guardians -1.5 +125U 8.5 -105-160

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.95 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.50 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.30 Units / 66% ROI)

Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Austin Hedges 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +340 0.5 -600

Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +135 1.5 -200
Austin Hedges 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Myles Straw 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Austin Hedges 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +110 0.5 -155

Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shane Bieber 7.5 +115 7.5 -160
Josh Winckowski 3.5 +105 3.5 -150
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 42 games (+15.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+9.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 70 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 35 games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 35 games (+4.15 Units / 11% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 39-32 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 8.25% ROI).

  • 40-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 3% ROI
  • 27-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -13.75% ROI
  • 35-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 8.29% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 37-29 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 7.84% ROI).

  • 36-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 10.66% ROI
  • 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -1.71% ROI
  • 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -6.9% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (12/21) against Josh Winckowski — tied for 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .125 (2-for-16) against Josh Winckowski versus the 2-3-4 hitters — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .264 — 93rd Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has allowed an OBP of just .125 (16 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.

Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (211/319) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.

Shane Bieber’s K:BB ratio is 8.4 (42/5) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 98th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has a strike rate of 69% (344/500) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (108/329) against Shane Bieber this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Red Sox are just 35-4 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Red Sox are 20-15 (.571) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .489.

The Red Sox are just 126-19 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 7-25 (.219) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Guardians are 23-2 (.920) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Guardians are 6-22 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Guardians are 25-3 (.893) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox have scored first in 80% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Red Sox are batting .261 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Guardians hitters have just 463 strikeouts in 2,503 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 319 strikeouts in 1,780 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 20% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (308.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.8 MPH (1,781 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Guardians pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Guardians pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.