- The Guardians are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Matthew Dermody
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-145) on Thursday, June 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 31-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 29-32 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +120 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+13.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 25 games at home (+21.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+11.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+11.20 Units / 187% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Guardians vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+8.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games (+7.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+5.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+20.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games at home (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 31-31 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -5.5% ROI).
- 31-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 35-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 10.44% ROI
- 25-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -20.68% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 29-32 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 28-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -15.53% ROI
- 20-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.5 Units / -32.19% ROI
- 38-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.25 Units / 24.07% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters chased just 53 of Luis Severino’s 203 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 26%) in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .132 (10-for-76) against Luis Severino’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 12-21 (.364) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Red Sox are just 8-89 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Red Sox are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 24-75 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 8-18 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are just 16-6 (.727) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Guardians are 17-81 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .358 (1,288 PA’s) at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Red Sox are batting .333 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .339 (4,323 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,104 strikeouts in 6,181 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .346 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians hitters have just 1,558 strikeouts in 8,424 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (819.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.0 MPH (1,549 batted balls) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games on the road this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed the 3rd hardest ball in play hit (113.9 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.8).
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 36 of 548 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 124 of 2,008 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 172 of 2,297 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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