- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Monday, July 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 56-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 50-55 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 59.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+17.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+16.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+15.60 Units / 78% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+12.55 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Mariners vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Mariners vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +110 |
| Nick Pivetta | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -120 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 92 games (+9.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 56-49 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 1.51% ROI).
- 56-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 3.76% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -3.11% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -6.67% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 50-55 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -5.64% ROI).
- 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -8% ROI
- 51-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -5.61% ROI
- 52-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -3.19% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (118 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .318 (206 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .464 — 92nd Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .793 (88 Total Bases / 111 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .541 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (31/89) against Nick Pivetta this season — 10th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 13th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 12 of 495 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (1,316/1,856) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (641/906) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (675/950) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox are 44-7 (.863) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Red Sox are 19-12 (.613) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Red Sox are 41-24 (.631) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .541.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 112-5 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 108-9 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Mariners are 19-13 (.594) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .338 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .395 (441 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .552 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .351 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .289 (484 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Mariners are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Mariners hitters have 1,039 strikeouts in 3,973 PA’s (26%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 300 of 3,953 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 63 of 931 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox have allowed 1.14 runs per game (120/105) in late innings this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 274 of 3,892 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 725 of 9,922 batters (7%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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