• The Red Sox are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
• Red Sox vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Red Sox / Marlins TV Channel: NESN | MATV

The Boston Red Sox (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on August 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Red Sox are 72-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 67-63 ATS.

Red Sox vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Payton Tolle 8-6, 3.10 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Red Sox vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 62.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+23.70 Units / 237% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+20.35 Units / 102% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.90 Units / 41% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.00 Units / 186% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 50 games (+19.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+14.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.10 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+12.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 64-63 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 2.04% ROI).

• 72-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -0.87% ROI
• 61-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -8.56% ROI
• 66-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -0.91% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 67-63 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -2.97% ROI).

• 67-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.68% ROI
• 63-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -6.07% ROI
• 65-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -2.83% ROI

Marlins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Red Sox are 43-28 (.606) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are 10-47 (.175) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are just 4-9 (.308) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are just 6-34 (.150) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Marlins are 28-8 (.778) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Marlins are 33-6 (.846) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins are 41-26 (.612) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

The Red Sox are batting .281 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .252 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .541 (2,583 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .189 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .257 (2,516 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 3.55 runs per game (231/65) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (563.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 3.63 runs per game (243/67) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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