- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Mets TV Channel: ATV
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on July 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 42-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 38-53 ATS.
Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 10-1, 2.63 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 6-5, 3.72 ERA
Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -110 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan McLean has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nolan McLean has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.35 Units / 63% ROI)
- Nolan McLean has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+4.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Nolan McLean has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Nolan McLean has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.10 Units / 40% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Mets Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 42-46 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -3.99% ROI).
- 42-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -14.72% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.05 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.3% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 38-53 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -12.95% ROI).
- 39-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.4 Units / -24.69% ROI
- 43-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -3.65% ROI
- 42-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.64% ROI
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-30 (.118) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Mets are just 35-46 (.432) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Mets are just 11-49 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Mets are 19-7 (.731) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .632.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have a winning percentage of just 39% at home this season — lowest in MLB.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .771 (908 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .635 (1,095 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .304 (3,525 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Mets are batting just .235 this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,805 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox won just 6% of the time this season — lowest in MLB.
The Red Sox have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Mets have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .229 against Mets pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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