• The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Mets
• Red Sox vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Red Sox / Mets TV Channel: NESN | WPIX

The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on July 12, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Red Sox are 45-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-55 ATS.

Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Payton Tolle 5-6, 3.15 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Zach Thornton 0-1, 4.36 ERA

Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Andruw Monasterio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+20.30 Units / 203% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.95 Units / 58% ROI)
• Carlos Narvaez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
• Connor Wong has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• A.J. Ewing has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.40 Units / 291% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+15.25 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 17 games (+13.20 Units / 64% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+11.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 30 games at home (+4.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 44-46 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -2.15% ROI).

• 45-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -13 Units / -11.35% ROI
• 42-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -10.06% ROI
• 47-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 0.59% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-55 against the Run Line (-14.85 Units / -13.09% ROI).

• 40-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.25 Units / -25.33% ROI
• 45-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.95 Units / -2.78% ROI
• 43-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -6.52% ROI

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Red Sox are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are 28-21 (.571) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Red Sox are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Red Sox are just 4-39 (.093) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .135.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Mets are just 20-35 (.364) after a loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Mets are just 35-48 (.422) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Mets are just 21-27 (.438) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Mets are 19-7 (.731) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .632.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .371 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of just .304 (2,563 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .675 (2,563 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .182 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .639 (1,122 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .304 (3,597 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .684 (2,596 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .381 this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

The Red Sox have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox won just 6% of the time this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.61 (822.1 IP) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 69% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 670 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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