- The Red Sox are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (-165) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+140) on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Red Sox vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 62-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 64-55 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -105 | O 9.5 -115 | -165 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | U 9.5 -105 | +140 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 49 games (+12.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Nationals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Rutherford | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+7.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+12.85 Units / 79% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 113 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 61-57 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -1.25% ROI).
- 62-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.95% ROI
- 56-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -5.76% ROI
- 57-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -4.01% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 64-55 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.48% ROI).
- 53-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.3 Units / 12.57% ROI
- 54-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -8.64% ROI
- 59-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.19% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .122 (10-for-82) against Nick Pivetta’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 99th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .180 (245 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a just .150 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 97th Percentile and .675 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (fifth worst among qualified RPs)– fifth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 31% (55/175) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
23 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .404 (21-for-52) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (72 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .379 — 0 Percentile.
23 of Josiah Gray’s 77 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are 51-2 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are 48-7 (.873) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Red Sox are just 13-18 (.419) after a home loss this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Red Sox are 21-9 (.700) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 33-58 (.363) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Nationals are just 56-38 (.596) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 18-29 (.383) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Nationals are just 32-149 (.177) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Red Sox are batting .299 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .529 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 272 strikeouts in 1,446 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 849 strikeouts in 4,486 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 36% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 2,070 strikeouts in 10,484 PA’s (20%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 337 of 4,458 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 71 of 1,046 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,747 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Joan Adon (Nationals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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