- The Red Sox are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (-160) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Red Sox vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 63-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 65-55 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -115 | -160 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -105 | +135 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+11.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.40 Units / 46% ROI)
Nationals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Nationals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 51 games (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 63% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+11.85 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 114 games (+7.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 games at home (+2.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -1.93% ROI).
- 63-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 2.6% ROI
- 56-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -5.71% ROI
- 57-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -3.98% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 65-55 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 2.16% ROI).
- 53-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.3 Units / 11.65% ROI
- 54-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 59-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.19% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has a strike rate of 72% (305/424) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .211 (50-for-237) against James Paxton this season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 90th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed a slugging percentage of just .246 (15 Total Bases / 61 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 97th Percentile.
James Paxton has walked 11 of 90 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 7.64 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (57/115) over the last 30 days (5 games) — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 30 of 236 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (144/512) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are 37-24 (.607) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Red Sox are 30-28 (.517) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Red Sox are 19-13 (.594) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Red Sox are 52-2 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 32-150 (.176) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .285.
The Nationals are just 51-90 (.362) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 33-58 (.363) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Nationals are just 18-30 (.375) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .340 (5,429 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Red Sox are batting .319 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting .286 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 588 strikeouts in 3,074 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .891 (861 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.107.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.78 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have 216 extra-base hits out of 699 total hits (just 31%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 72 of 1,055 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 340 of 4,494 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Joan Adon (Nationals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox): Fatigue, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
Bet now on Red Sox vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
