- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Red Sox vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 11:05am EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Red Sox are 43-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 45-42 ATS.
Red Sox vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 4-1, 4.04 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mike Soroka 3-5, 4.71 ERA
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+14.50 Units / 242% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.25 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Walks Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+10.00 Units / 109% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 63% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 away games (+7.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 43 away games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+9.72 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.95 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 43-44 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.53% ROI).
- 43-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.66 Units / -9.17% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.71 Units / -10% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.98% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 45-42 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 37-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.82 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 43-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 41-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.28% ROI
Nationals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Nationals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka (WAS) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 57% (12/21) against Lucas Giolito in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to June 10th — David Peterson has the longest active streak at 8.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (6/25) against Lucas Giolito in his last two starts — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (38/52) in his last two starts — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — 93rd Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (24/155) against Mike Soroka this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mike Soroka walked 16% of left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (13-for-91) against Mike Soroka’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (14/104) against Mike Soroka’s fastball this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are just 7-87 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 16-158 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 35-44 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 17-25 (.395) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Nationals are just 7-20 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Nationals are just 36-50 (.414) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .269 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .435 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 27% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Nationals hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .366 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Nationals are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Red Sox pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 58% of the time over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 1.99 runs per game (173/87) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
The Nationals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
More MLB Reading:
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