- The Red Sox are -110 favorites vs the Nationals
- Red Sox vs Nationals Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Red Sox / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-110) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Red Sox are 44-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 45-43 ATS.
Red Sox vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 5-6, 6.49 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-8, 4.62 ERA
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 10 -115 | -110 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | U 10 -105 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+12.40 Units / 207% ROI)
- Walker Buehler has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Walker Buehler has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+4.40 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.35 Units / 75% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.35 Units / 90% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
Nationals Best Bets Today:
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 44-44 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.53% ROI).
- 44-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.66 Units / -9.17% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.71 Units / -10% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.98% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 45-43 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 37-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.82 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.95 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -6.28% ROI
Nationals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.5 -118 | 4.5 -110 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Walker Buehler has allowed an OBP of .335 (337 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 0 Percentile.
Walker Buehler has a in-zone of just 34% (124/367) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Walker Buehler’s pitches (187/367) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 59% — 0 Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to May 25th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
12 of Mitchell Parker’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of .379 (153 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — second Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 98 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (47/279) against Mitchell Parker this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 7-87 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox are just 16-158 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 35-45 (.432) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 17-26 (.386) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Nationals are just 7-20 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Nationals are just 36-51 (.409) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .600 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Red Sox are batting .269 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .999 (248 PA’s) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,726 PA’s) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Nationals are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .265 (1,666 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have 145 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 6.75 runs per game (81/12) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.71 (106.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
The Nationals have allowed 1.99 runs per game (175/88) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 59% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
More MLB Reading:
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