- The Red Sox are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Red Sox vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-275) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+225) on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Washington, D.C., DC.
This season, the Red Sox are 45-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 45-44 ATS.
Red Sox vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 8-4, 2.36 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Shinnosuke Ogasawara 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -2.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -275 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +225 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 66.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+18.50 Units / 231% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 104% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 34 away games (+14.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 away games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 away games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+11.92 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 45-44 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 1.02% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.66 Units / -7.31% ROI
- 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.71 Units / -7.77% ROI
- 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -1.31% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 45-44 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -6.38% ROI).
- 37-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.97 Units / -8.33% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -8.44% ROI
Nationals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Nationals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara (WSH) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +115 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 37% (164 SO in 438 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has 37 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has struck out 32% (124/385) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 53% (144 SO in 271 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shinnosuke Ogasawara is making his MLB debut today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox are just 2-29 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Red Sox are just 7-87 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 4-178 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 17-27 (.378) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Nationals are just 36-52 (.404) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 35-45 (.432) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 11-42 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 24% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .271 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .243 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .175.
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals are batting .193 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 1.98 runs per game (176/89) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
The Nationals have allowed 7.33 runs per game (88/12) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .287 against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.81 (220.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Red Sox vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
