- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Orioles
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+100) on Monday, April 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 12-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 11-10 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.85 Units / 131% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 76% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.45 Units / 64% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Chris Sale | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.30 Units / 31% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 13-10 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 10.55% ROI).
- 12-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.92% ROI
- 16-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.2 Units / 32.41% ROI
- 7-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.9 Units / -42.75% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 11-10 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -2.04% ROI).
- 14-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 22.7% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 5.12% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -11.55% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 48% (25/52) against Chris Sale this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .000 (0 TB / 24 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 47% (8 SO in 17 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 96th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 57% (16 SO in 28 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (17 Total Bases / 26 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .322 — fourth Percentile.
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 32% (101 SO in 319 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
Dean Kremer had a first-pitch strike rate of 88% (22/25) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Dean Kremer has allowed a slugging percentage of .679 (19 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .382 — third Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 4-10 (.286) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Red Sox are 6-8 (.429) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Red Sox are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Red Sox are just 7-73 (.088) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are just 0-5 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .037.
The Orioles are 5-4 (.556) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Orioles are 14-10 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 10-1 (.909) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .473 (74 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,889 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .355 (439 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Orioles hitters have drawn 11 walks in 67 PA’s (16%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Orioles are batting .400 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .345.
Orioles hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (853.0 IP) at home since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed 33 home runs this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .091 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.77 (1387.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.66 (52.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Knee, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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