Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 26

Baltimore Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle during a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, Saturday, June 3, 2023.
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
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  • The Orioles are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Red Sox vs Orioles Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
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The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-145) on April 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 pm in Baltimore, MD.

This season, the Red Sox are 10-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 12-15 ATS.

Red Sox vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Connelly Early 1-1, 2.88 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish 1-2, 3.96 ERA

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -190O 7.5 -110+120
Orioles -1.5 +155U 7.5 -110-145

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Marcelo Mayer has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+20.50 Units / 293% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Blaze Alexander has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 8-19 against the Run Line (-11.6 Units / -36.83% ROI).

  • 10-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.45 Units / -32.95% ROI
  • 14-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -1.34% ROI
  • 13-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -7.91% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 12-15 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -11.42% ROI).

  • 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -10.29% ROI
  • 17-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.95 Units / 19.97% ROI
  • 10-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -29.17% ROI

Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Yes
Tyler O'Neill +425
Pete Alonso +425
Wilyer Abreu +475
Willson Contreras +525
Gunnar Henderson +525

Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeremiah Jackson 0.5 -220 0.5 +160
Ceddanne Rafaela 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Taylor Ward 0.5 -190 0.5 +140
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 -190 0.5 +140
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -185 0.5 +135

Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler O'Neill 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Carlos Narvaez 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Blaze Alexander 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Coby Mayo 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Marcelo Mayer 0.5 -250 0.5 +180

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

The Red Sox are just 10-14 (.417) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Red Sox are 80-4 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Red Sox are just 1-11 (.083) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 2-88 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .044.

The Orioles are just 73-11 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.

The Orioles were just 1-77 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .312 at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .603 (465 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting just .211 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have a 40% QAB rate this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .230 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .148 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB.

The Orioles are batting just .209 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Red Sox pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (22 games) — tied for best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Orioles pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Orioles pitchers walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.