Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 21, 2022, 9:15 AM
  • The Red Sox (60-61) are -120 favorites vs the Orioles (62-58)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (9-9), 4.28 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (5-4), 3.58 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Boston Red Sox (-120) visit Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+100) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Williamsport.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 78-41 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +135O 9 -115-120
Orioles +1.5 -160U 9 -105+100

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+14.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 39 away games (+14.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games at home (+15.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jorge Mateo has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games at home (+12.95 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+7.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 101 games (+7.45 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 60 games (+2.30 Units / 4% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-58 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.44% ROI).

  • 58-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -5.86% ROI
  • 52-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -6.77% ROI
  • 56-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.42% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 78-41 against the Run Line (+29.7 Units / 18.92% ROI).

  • 62-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.5 Units / 19.52% ROI
  • 56-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -4.88% ROI
  • 58-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2.68% ROI

Hitters have chased just 133 of Nick Pivetta’s 582 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (81/455) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 37% (85/232) against Nick Pivetta this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 16th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (18 Total Bases / 79 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .359 — 89th Percentile.

Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .321 (52-for-162) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (24/36) against Dean Kremer — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (21/35) against Dean Kremer — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 75% (15/20) against Dean Kremer — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 6-26 (.188) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Red Sox are just 3-45 (.062) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Red Sox are just 2-47 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 11-50 (.180) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Orioles are 19-4 (.826) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Orioles are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Orioles are just 11-25 (.306) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Orioles are batting just .154 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .233 (5,749 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Red Sox have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.63 (538.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 323 of 4,489 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 160 of 2,470 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Boyce Mullins (Orioles): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
  • Thomas Pham (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.