Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 10, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (67-72) are -110 favorites vs the Orioles (73-65)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (10-1), 2.58 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (10-9), 4.25 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-110) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-48 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +150O 8.5 -115-110
Orioles +1.5 -185U 8.5 -105-110

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+19.20 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 52 games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 away games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games at home (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Anthony Santander 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Austin Hays 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Anthony Santander 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Austin Hays 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Cedric Mullins 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Anthony Santander 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Austin Hays 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jordan Lyles 3.5 +120 3.5 -165
Michael Wacha 3.5 -160 3.5 +110
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-66 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.04% ROI).

  • 65-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.15% ROI
  • 61-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -5.76% ROI
  • 64-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.74% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-48 against the Run Line (+30.35 Units / 16.82% ROI).

  • 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.25 Units / 20.1% ROI
  • 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -9.85% ROI
  • 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 2.15% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .169 (26-for-154) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .158 (15-for-95) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 99th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (552/1,126) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .280 (35-for-125) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 93rd Percentile.

Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .703 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .470 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .242 (75-for-310) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .400 (124 Total Bases / 310 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .303 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — fourth Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Red Sox are just 3-56 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 55-1 (.982) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 30-7 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Orioles are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Orioles hitters have 362 strikeouts in 1,456 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Orioles have won just 60% of games in which they have scored first at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH this season (3,535 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.36 (512.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.86 (1630.0 IP) at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.76 (1207.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.