- The Red Sox (67-72) are -110 favorites vs the Orioles (73-65)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (10-1), 2.58 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (10-9), 4.25 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-110) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 5:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-48 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+19.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 52 games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 away games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games at home (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -165 |
| Michael Wacha | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-66 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.04% ROI).
- 65-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 61-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -5.76% ROI
- 64-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.74% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-48 against the Run Line (+30.35 Units / 16.82% ROI).
- 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.25 Units / 20.1% ROI
- 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -9.85% ROI
- 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 2.15% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .169 (26-for-154) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (15-for-95) against Michael Wacha on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (552/1,126) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .280 (35-for-125) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 93rd Percentile.
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .703 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .470 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .242 (75-for-310) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .400 (124 Total Bases / 310 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .303 (340 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — fourth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Red Sox are just 3-56 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 55-1 (.982) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .884.
The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 30-7 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Orioles are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have 362 strikeouts in 1,456 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Orioles have won just 60% of games in which they have scored first at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH this season (3,535 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.36 (512.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.86 (1630.0 IP) at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.76 (1207.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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