Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 09, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Red Sox (67-71) are +100 favorites vs the Orioles (72-65)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (1-4), 5.90 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Austin Voth (4-2), 4.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-120) on Friday, September 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-48 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +155O 8.5 -110+100
Orioles +1.5 -190U 8.5 -110-120

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+19.20 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 52 games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 away games (+13.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games at home (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Anthony Santander 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Austin Hays 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Anthony Santander 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Austin Hays 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Cedric Mullins 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Anthony Santander 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Austin Hays 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Voth 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
Brayan Bello 3.5 -140 3.5 -105
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+12.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 118 games (+7.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 77 games (+1.90 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-66 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.04% ROI).

  • 65-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -7.15% ROI
  • 61-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -5.76% ROI
  • 64-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -1.74% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 88-48 against the Run Line (+30.35 Units / 16.82% ROI).

  • 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +29.25 Units / 20.1% ROI
  • 61-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -9.85% ROI
  • 70-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 2.15% ROI

Brayan Bello has not allowed a home run in any of the last 32.0 innings he’s appeared — Zac Gallen has the longest active streak at 59.1.

Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last six starts dating back to July 6th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 10.

Brayan Bello has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.0 innings pitched — James Karinchak has the longest active streak at 25.2.

Brayan Bello had a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (17/22) — 8th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.

Austin Voth: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .386 (39-for-101) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .215 (68-for-316) against Austin Voth with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .157 — second Percentile.

Austin Voth has allowed an OPS of .868 (177 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .627 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (64/211) against Austin Voth since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 3-55 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are 142-46 (.755) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Red Sox are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Orioles are 54-1 (.982) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Orioles are 7-57 (.109) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Orioles are 24-6 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Orioles are 30-7 (.811) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Orioles hitters have 362 strikeouts in 1,456 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Orioles hitters have a swing rate of 50% against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,083 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 290 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.66 (630.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,457 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this month (7 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.78 (1198.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Jordan Lyles (Orioles): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.