- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Padres TV Channel: NESN | PDTV
The Boston Red Sox (+118) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, August 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Red Sox are 65-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 62-55 ATS.
Red Sox vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 8-5, 3.05 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 4-10, 4.64 ERA
Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 +100 | +118 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -120 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+12.50 Units / 312% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+10.20 Units / 113% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 65% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+24.50 Units / 612% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+12.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+18.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 46 away games (+15.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 113 games (+9.51 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 103 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 55 games at home (+8.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+8.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 66-51 against the Run Line (+14.6 Units / 9.68% ROI).
- 65-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.69 Units / 2.33% ROI
- 57-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.06 Units / -5.44% ROI
- 58-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -3.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 62-55 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 2.33% ROI).
- 65-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.05 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 49-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -17.3% ROI
- 65-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.3 Units / 8.78% ROI
Padres vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Padres vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ramon Laureano (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan O’Hearn (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of just .686 (99 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .995 — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .402 (92 Total Bases / 229 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .542 — 98th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of just .507 with RISP this season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 93rd Percentile. He allowed an OPS of .793 (173 PAs) with RISP last season — 10th worst among qualified SPs– 18th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .312 (25 Total Bases / 80 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .556 — 96th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (69/182) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 53% of the time (229/434) when behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 49% of the time (212/434) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (195/534) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are 55-3 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 5-183 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are 10-40 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Padres are 36-20 (.643) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .546.
The Padres are 23-95 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Red Sox on 1% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 0%.. *
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,351 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Red Sox are batting .266 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
