- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Padres TV Channel: NESN | PDTV | KFMB
The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-170) on Friday, August 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Red Sox are 64-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 62-53 ATS.
Red Sox vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 6-6, 5.77 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 11-3, 2.73 ERA
Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -115 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -170 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+13.10 Units / 164% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+19.00 Units / 190% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 51 games (+18.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 44 away games (+16.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 111 games (+9.06 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+18.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games at home (+10.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 64-51 against the Run Line (+12.6 Units / 8.53% ROI).
- 64-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.24 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.06 Units / -7.1% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -2.35% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 62-53 against the Run Line (+5.5 Units / 3.72% ROI).
- 64-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 3.83% ROI
- 47-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.3 Units / -19.19% ROI
- 65-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 10.58% ROI
Padres vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Padres vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ramon Laureano (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Walker Buehler has allowed an OBP of .348 (224 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .325 (69-for-212) against Walker Buehler this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 36% of Walker Buehler’s fastballs (230/643) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Walker Buehler has a strikeout rate of just 12% (21 SO in 171 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .245 (502 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (29-for-183) against Nick Pivetta when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .213 (197 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OPS of just .565 (504 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are 54-3 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 5-183 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Padres are 124-9 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Padres are 108-10 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Padres are 10-39 (.204) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,345 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .437 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 11% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
