- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Saturday, May 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 25-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 21-24 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+16.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+12.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+11.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+13.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
Padres vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+17.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+1.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+1.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 25-20 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 4.68% ROI).
- 25-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 14.37% ROI
- 29-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.75 Units / 28.15% ROI
- 14-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.55 Units / -36.84% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 21-24 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -14.43% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.65 Units / -22.3% ROI
- 14-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.75 Units / -37.06% ROI
- 29-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.85 Units / 28.47% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of .947 (18 Total Bases / 19 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .405 — first Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .418 (23-for-55) against Chris Sale this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .474 (9-for-19) against Chris Sale on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .450 (9-for-20) against Chris Sale on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .348 — 10th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.0 MPH on inside pitches since last season (193 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 85.5
Opponents are hitting just .276 (21-for-76) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .341 — 91st Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 61% of Joe Musgrove’s pitches in the zone (973/1,585) since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 67% — fourth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has an average spin rate of 2718.2 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 2406.3 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Red Sox are 14-9 (.609) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Red Sox are just 4-12 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Red Sox are just 7-81 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Padres are just 4-79 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Padres are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .459 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Red Sox are batting .366 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .429 (163 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Red Sox are batting .296 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have drawn 137 walks in 1,142 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .309 over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Padres hitters are slugging just .159 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 27 of 398 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 506 times this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.8
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Justin Turner (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
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