- The Phillies are -220 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Phillies TV Channel: NESN | NSPA
The Boston Red Sox (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-220) on Monday, July 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 54-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 6-6, 6.15 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 9-3, 2.36 ERA
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -115 | +180 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -105 | -220 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 64.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+15.90 Units / 159% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 131% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+12.25 Units / 153% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 97% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.51 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 games (+10.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+9.54 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+5.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 53-47 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 3.97% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.66 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 48-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.31 Units / -7.47% ROI
- 51-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.76% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 49-49 against the Run Line (-2.4 Units / -1.98% ROI).
- 56-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -0.81% ROI
- 42-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 54-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 7.39% ROI
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 -155 | 7.5 +120 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 36% of Walker Buehler’s fastballs (201/552) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (82-for-255) against Walker Buehler when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .236 — 0 Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed an OBP of .389 (144 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Walker Buehler has allowed an OBP of .337 (190 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .161 (56-for-348) against Zack Wheeler in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has struck out 34% (90/264) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (593/1,302) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler allowed an OBP of just .201 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are 32-21 (.604) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are 45-3 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 9-27 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Phillies are 15-9 (.625) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (Ranks fifth runs scored) today.
The Phillies are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are 21-74 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .445 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .786 (1,127 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
The Red Sox have an average Exit Velocity of 91.8 MPH this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.3.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .394 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .809 (454 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .658.
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.25 (88.0 IP) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Phillies pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 70% of the time over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the past seven days (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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