- The Phillies are -200 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Phillies TV Channel: NESN | NSPA | TBS
The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-200) on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 54-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-50 ATS.
Red Sox vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Fitts 1-3, 4.28 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 8-2, 2.50 ERA
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 64.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.90 Units / 99% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+11.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 away games (+13.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.40 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+6.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+14.51 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 82 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+10.54 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+5.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-47 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.71% ROI).
- 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.66 Units / -1.92% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.51 Units / -8.46% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -0.85% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 49-50 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -2.94% ROI).
- 57-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 42-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.3 Units / -16.63% ROI
- 55-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 8.23% ROI
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Fitts (BOS) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -105 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (17/25) against Richard Fitts this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 79% (19/24) of opposing batters this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 97th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has thrown his slider 40% of the time (51/129) this month (2 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Richard Fitts has allowed a slugging percentage of just .258 (8 Total Bases / 31 ABs) this month (2 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 93rd Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has a strikeout rate of 55% with two strikes this season — fourth highest among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. He had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two strikes last season — sixth lowest among qualified SPs– 11th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (324/557) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (101/285) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (136/221) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 5-180 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 19-160 (.106) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 9-27 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Phillies are 16-9 (.640) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Red Sox (Ranks fifth runs scored) today.
The Phillies are 26-5 (.839) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Phillies are 117-9 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .864.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .355 (490 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Phillies hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .392 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have 168 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.15 (88.0 IP) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers this month (16 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.33 (435.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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