- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Phillies TV Channel: ESPN
The Boston Red Sox (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA, PA.
This season, the Red Sox are 54-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 50-50 ATS.
Red Sox vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 6-2, 3.64 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 8-5, 4.32 ERA
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+11.00 Units / 157% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+8.50 Units / 57% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+11.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.40 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+7.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+15.51 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 83 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+9.39 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+6.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 54-48 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 3.67% ROI).
- 54-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.66 Units / -2.62% ROI
- 48-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.61 Units / -9.34% ROI
- 53-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 50-50 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 58-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.47% ROI
- 42-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.4 Units / -17.45% ROI
- 56-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 9.05% ROI
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Otto Kemp (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Lucas Giolito in his last start — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 46% — seventh Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (54/74) this month (3 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has a strike rate of 73% (165/227) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (8/27) against Lucas Giolito this month (3 games) — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .425 (17-for-40) against Jesus Luzardo’s low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .267 — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a BABIP of .373 this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .293 (98-for-335) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fourth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a BABIP of .376 against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 19-161 (.106) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Red Sox are just 54-177 (.234) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 9-27 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Phillies are 21-74 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Phillies are 45-31 (.592) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (Ranks fifth runs scored) today.
The Phillies are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox are batting .342 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (14 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 24% of their PA’s this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Phillies are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Phillies hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .292 (467 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Red Sox pitchers this month (17 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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