- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta, 7.04 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz, 3.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 10-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 6-9 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -115 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -105 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 65.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 11-7 against the Run Line (+3.65 Units / 16.67% ROI).
- 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 25.22% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.85 Units / -9.37% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 1.26% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 6-9 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -22.37% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -3.31% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.3 Units / 37.28% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -48.77% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta walked 73 of 773 batters (9%) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke had a strikeout rate of just 18% (9/50) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke struck out just 9% (21/241) of left-handed batters he faced last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta walked 24 of 219 batters (11%) versus the bottom of the order last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — fourth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.0 innings pitched — J.P. Feyereisen has the longest active streak at 28.2.
Luis Ortiz allowed a slugging percentage of just .167 (5 Total Bases / 30 ABs) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 14th best among among 250 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .362 — 94th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies batted .176 on pitches out of the zone last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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