- The Phillies are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Boston Red Sox (+130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 19-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 13-19 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -110 | +130 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+14.30 Units / 75% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.80 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+13.05 Units / 93% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -175 | 5.5 +135 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 19-14 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 10.6% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 15.68% ROI
- 23-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.1 Units / 33.75% ROI
- 10-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -42.9% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 13-19 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -28.22% ROI).
- 15-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -12.71% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 2.27% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has a strike rate of 77% (72/94) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 54% (45/83) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 82% of Chris Sale’s pitches (42/51) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .056 (1-for-18) against Chris Sale — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .220 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.5 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2020 season (253 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Zack Wheeler has a strike rate of just 51% (78/152) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (29/71) against Zack Wheeler when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of .463 (54 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .318 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are 11-11 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Red Sox are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .110.
The Red Sox are 14-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Red Sox are just 2-11 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 17-71 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Phillies are just 0-6 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Phillies are 8-1 (.889) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are 55-39 (.585) at home since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .471 (119 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .526 (76 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Phillies are batting .336 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters are slugging .521 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Phillies hitters are slugging .421 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 20 of 292 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 12 double plays in 212 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 6.33 (159.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 7.51 (50.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
The Phillies have allowed 6.21 runs per game (118/19) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
Bet now on Red Sox vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
