- The Phillies are + favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Boston Red Sox (+) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 21-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 13-21 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | + + | O + | + |
| Phillies | + + | U + | + |
Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+13.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.75 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+13.35 Units / 83% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.15 Units / 37% ROI)
Phillies vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Triston Casas | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 35 games (+15.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+13.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+0.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 21-14 against the Run Line (+6.4 Units / 14.37% ROI).
- 21-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 21.78% ROI
- 24-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.1 Units / 34.34% ROI
- 10-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.85 Units / -43.15% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 13-21 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -31.28% ROI).
- 15-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -18.44% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.54% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (6/44) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .533 (8-for-15) against Tanner Houck on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .362 — fifth Percentile.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (29/168) against Tanner Houck in non-two strike counts this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 57% of Taijuan Walker’s pitches in the zone (134/234) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (20/29) against Taijuan Walker this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 57% (102/179) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed an OPS of 1.370 (25 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .753 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are 11-11 (.500) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Red Sox are 13-9 (.591) when underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Red Sox are 10-3 (.769) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Red Sox are 19-3 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Phillies are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Phillies are 17-73 (.189) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Phillies are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .460 (126 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .385 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .512 (82 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
29% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .760 (2,171 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Phillies hitters are slugging .520 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 21 of 310 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 103 of 1,343 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 13 double plays in 221 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 9.12 (50.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Phillies have allowed 8.67 runs per game (52/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.70.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Phillies pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Darick Hall (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies): Tricep, D15
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hand, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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