Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (57-59) are -140 favorites vs the Pirates (45-70)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-9), 4.51 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-8), 4.24 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Boston Red Sox (-140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 57-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 59-56 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +120O 8.5 -115-140
Pirates +1.5 -145U 8.5 -105+115

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+12.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Bligh Madris 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Greg Allen 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Jason Delay 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Bligh Madris 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Greg Allen 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Jason Delay 0.5 -125 0.5 -110

Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Bligh Madris 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Greg Allen 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jason Delay 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Pirates vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
Nick Pivetta 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 96 games (+6.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 away games (+4.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 87 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+10.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+6.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 1.15% ROI).

  • 57-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -5.86% ROI
  • 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.67% ROI
  • 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-56 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -3.14% ROI).

  • 45-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.6% ROI
  • 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -8.92% ROI
  • 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.55% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 18% (77/423) against Nick Pivetta this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (422/1,001) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,401/3,347) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 7.57 (44.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 3.86 — first Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .418 (172-for-411) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .335 (64-for-191) against Mitch Keller when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .317 (122-for-385) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: .237 — second Percentile.

The average home run distance against Mitch Keller against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 385.7 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 399.4

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Red Sox are just 141-20 (.876) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Red Sox are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Red Sox are just 3-43 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Pirates are just 85-23 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 31-8 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.

The Pirates are just 24-29 (.453) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

The Pirates are just 51-121 (.297) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.

The Red Sox are batting .262 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have 157 extra-base hits out of 392 total hits (40%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .293 (3,168 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The Pirates are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,423 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox have won 41% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 246 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 24 of 191 batters (13%) over the past seven days (5 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 400 of 4,400 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Groin, D10
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.