- The Red Sox (59-59) are -155 favorites vs the Pirates (45-72)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (5-5), 4.68 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-10), 4.44 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 59-57 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -110 | -155 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -125 | U 8.5 -110 | +125 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -300 |
| Kevin Newman | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -135 |
| JT Brubaker | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.97% ROI).
- 58-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -5.12% ROI
- 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -4.07% ROI).
- 45-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -4.4% ROI
- 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -8.85% ROI
- 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.54% ROI
Joshua Winckowski: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Winckowski has struck out just 7% (2/29) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.
Josh Winckowski has thrown his slider 46% of the time (82/180) this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Josh Winckowski was 112.4 MPH — 10th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.7
Josh Winckowski has thrown breaking pitches 47% of the time (49/105) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (300/899) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (584/1,099) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (139/447) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (30/81) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 143-20 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Red Sox are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-43 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 85-23 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 31-8 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Pirates are just 15-63 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 24-31 (.436) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox hitters have grounded into 18 double plays in 89 opportunities (20%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .221 (5,392 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .222 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Pirates are batting just .229 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 247 barreled balls this season — 5th most in MLB.
The Red Sox have allowed 5.08 runs per game (300/59) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 221 of 2,420 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 31 of 233 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 411 of 4,480 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,266 of 12,847 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Mitch Keller (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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