Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 18, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (59-59) are -155 favorites vs the Pirates (45-72)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (5-5), 4.68 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (2-10), 4.44 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (-155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 58-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 59-57 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +105O 8.5 -110-155
Pirates +1.5 -125U 8.5 -110+125

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Pirates vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Bligh Madris 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Kevin Newman 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Pirates vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Bligh Madris 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +200 1.5 -300
Kevin Newman 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Pirates vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Bligh Madris 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Kevin Newman 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Pirates vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winckowski 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
JT Brubaker 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 98 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.97% ROI).

  • 58-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -5.12% ROI
  • 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -7.61% ROI
  • 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (-5.95 Units / -4.07% ROI).

  • 45-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -4.4% ROI
  • 51-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -8.85% ROI
  • 57-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 0.54% ROI

Josh Winckowski has struck out just 7% (2/29) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

Josh Winckowski has thrown his slider 46% of the time (82/180) this month (2 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Josh Winckowski was 112.4 MPH — 10th hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 108.7

Josh Winckowski has thrown breaking pitches 47% of the time (49/105) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (300/899) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 53% of JT Brubaker’s pitches (584/1,099) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (139/447) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (30/81) against JT Brubaker when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Red Sox are just 143-20 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Red Sox are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.

The Red Sox are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 3-43 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Pirates are just 85-23 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 31-8 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Pirates are just 15-63 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 24-31 (.436) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Red Sox are batting .273 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox hitters have grounded into 18 double plays in 89 opportunities (20%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.

26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .221 (5,392 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .222 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Pirates are batting just .229 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 34% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 247 barreled balls this season — 5th most in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 5.08 runs per game (300/59) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.

Pirates pitchers have walked 221 of 2,420 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 31 of 233 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 411 of 4,480 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,266 of 12,847 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Mitch Keller (Pirates): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Undisclosed, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.