- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Duane Underwood Jr., 2.07 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN360
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on Thursday, March 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bradenton.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 11-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 10-8 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | O 10 -105 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +130 | U 10 -115 | -140 |
Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 60.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Greg Allen has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.50 Units / 183% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 12-10 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 3.11% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 9.16% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -8.47% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 10-8 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.21% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 20.74% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -30.15% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 17% (93/533) against Josh Winckowski last season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 24% (136/576) against Josh Winckowski last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Josh Winckowski allowed an OBP of .361 (316 PA’s) last season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .305 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 50% (26/52) against Josh Winckowski on elevated fastballs last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has not allowed a walk in his last 50 PAs against a RHH dating back to September 13rd, 2022 — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 191.
Right-handed batters batted just .125 (7-for-56) against Johan Oviedo over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo allowed an OBP of just .197 (61 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — 96th Percentile.
Johan Oviedo allowed a slugging percentage of just .179 (10 Total Bases / 56 ABs) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 415 times last season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers walked 584 of 6,227 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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