- The Rangers are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Rangers starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-160) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Red Sox vs Rangers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 75-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 79-71 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.20 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jordan Montgomery has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Rangers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Rangers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Evan Carter | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+8.98 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 55 away games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+1.20 Units / 6% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 142 games (+21.14 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 83 of their last 142 games (+16.43 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 70 games at home (+13.63 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games at home (+12.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -5.05% ROI).
- 75-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -4.48% ROI
- 78-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 67-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -11.62% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 79-71 against the Run Line (+7.7 Units / 4.15% ROI).
- 82-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -2.75% ROI
- 79-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 4.49% ROI
- 65-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.6 Units / -13.11% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .194 (21 Total Bases / 108 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .321 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (48/80) against Tanner Houck over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (42/67) against Tanner Houck with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of .567 (51 Total Bases / 90 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .379 — third Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (41/293) against Nathan Eovaldi since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (49/330) against Nathan Eovaldi on non-fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (26/173) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed an OPS of just .520 (220 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .758 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Red Sox are 57-4 (.934) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are just 12-19 (.387) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 33-33 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rangers are 28-13 (.683) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Rangers are just 2-137 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rangers are 23-19 (.548) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Rangers are 49-33 (.598) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,015 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .365 (685 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .790 (5,851 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .803 (1,534 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Rangers hitters have chased 29% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Rangers are batting .274 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.02 (1073.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .268 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 55 of 516 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% over the last 14 days (13 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 244 of 2,778 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Rangers pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Hamstring, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hamstring, D60
- Ian Kennedy (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Rangers): Triceps , D15
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Covid-19, D7
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Triston Casas (Red Sox): Shouder, D10
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