Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 13, 2022, 10:58 AM
  • The Rays (47-40) are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox (47-41)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (3-3), 4.35 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan (9-3), 1.72 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-185) on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 47-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 41-46 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -145O 7 -115+150
Rays -1.5 +120U 7 -105-185

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 50.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+8.70 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Franchy Cordero has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+5.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brett Phillips 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
    Francisco Mejia 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
    Harold Ramirez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
    Isaac Paredes 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
    Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

    Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brett Phillips 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
    Francisco Mejia 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
    Harold Ramirez 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
    Isaac Paredes 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Ji-Man Choi 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

    Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brett Phillips 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
    Francisco Mejia 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
    Harold Ramirez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
    Isaac Paredes 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
    Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

    Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Shane McClanahan 7.5 -110 7.5 -130
    Josh Winckowski 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+13.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 59 games (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+5.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+4.70 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 60 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 43 games (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 48-40 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 8.87% ROI).

    • 47-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.22% ROI
    • 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -8.51% ROI
    • 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 2.21% ROI

    Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 41-46 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -4.98% ROI).

    • 47-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -3.96% ROI
    • 39-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -8.72% ROI
    • 44-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.13% ROI

    Josh Winckowski had a strike rate of just 53% (52/98) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (11/80) against Josh Winckowski this month (2 games) — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.

    Opponents had a chase percentage of just 8% (4/48) against Josh Winckowski — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.

    Josh Winckowski has walked 6 of 50 batters (12%) this month (2 games) — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.

    Shane McClanahan: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Shane McClanahan has a strikeout rate of 36% (141 SO in 392 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

    Shane McClanahan has allowed an OBP of just .128 (243 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

    Shane McClanahan has a strikeout rate of 58% (141 SO in 243 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

    Shane McClanahan has struck out 37% (125/340) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

    Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

    The Red Sox are 24-21 (.533) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

    The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Red Sox are just 40-112 (.263) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

    The Red Sox are just 132-19 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

    Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

    The Rays are 21-5 (.808) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

    The Rays are 27-17 (.614) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

    The Rays are 82-14 (.854) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

    The Rays are 78-24 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

    Red Sox hitters are slugging .439 against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

    The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

    Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .554 (5,120 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

    The Red Sox are batting .187 with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

    Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 312 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Rays hitters have an OPS of just .462 (1,746 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.

    Rays hitters have 726 strikeouts in 3,013 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    25% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Red Sox pitchers have walked 61 of 524 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Red Sox pitchers have walked 56 of 478 batters (12%) this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH this season (2,194 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

    Rays pitchers have walked 44 of 779 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Rays pitchers have walked 137 of 2,241 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

    Rays pitchers have walked 660 of 9,204 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Rays pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Kevin Plawecki (Red Sox): COVID, D10
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.