Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Rays (48-40) are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox (47-42)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-2), 4.50 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (5-3), 3.10 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 47-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 42-46 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -200O 7.5 -115+105
Rays -1.5 +165U 7.5 -105-125

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+9.70 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 98% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+6.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+3.20 Units / 53% ROI)

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Taylor Walls 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Harold Ramirez 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Taylor Walls 0.5 -150 0.5 +105

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brett Phillips 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jonathan Aranda 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Taylor Walls 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Drew Rasmussen 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
Kutter Crawford 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 45 away games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+5.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 44 games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 48-41 against the Run Line (+8.3 Units / 7.54% ROI).

  • 47-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -1.1% ROI
  • 37-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.53% ROI
  • 43-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 3.2% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 42-46 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -3.88% ROI).

  • 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -3.08% ROI
  • 39-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.77% ROI
  • 45-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 2.13% ROI

Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of .797 (77 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .467 — first Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has walked 9 of 63 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed an OBP of .312 (77 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .710 (22 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .409 (36 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .595 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (40/133) against Drew Rasmussen on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (29/80) against Drew Rasmussen on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .239 (21-for-88) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 132-19 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 1-32 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 10-7 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 28-17 (.622) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Rays are 67-7 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Rays are 142-9 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .468 at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Rays hitters have 727 strikeouts in 3,019 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 312 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays hitters have drawn 195 walks in 1,609 PA’s (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Rays hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (2,217 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 61 of 512 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH this season (2,217 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Rays pitchers have walked 660 of 9,234 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 137 of 2,250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 44 of 788 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Rays pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): The Tampa Bay Rays placed RHP Shane Baz on the 15-day injured list., D15
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.