- The Rays (48-40) are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox (47-42)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-2), 4.50 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (5-3), 3.10 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 47-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 42-46 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+9.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 98% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 11 away games (+5.15 Units / 47% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+6.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+3.20 Units / 53% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Harold Ramirez | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
| Kutter Crawford | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 45 away games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+5.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 44 games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 48-41 against the Run Line (+8.3 Units / 7.54% ROI).
- 47-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -1.1% ROI
- 37-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.53% ROI
- 43-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 3.2% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 42-46 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -3.88% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -3.08% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -9.77% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 2.13% ROI
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of .797 (77 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .467 — first Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has walked 9 of 63 left-handed batters (14%) this season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OBP of .312 (77 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — third Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .710 (22 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .409 (36 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .595 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (40/133) against Drew Rasmussen on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (29/80) against Drew Rasmussen on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .239 (21-for-88) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 132-19 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are just 2-32 (.059) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 1-32 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 10-7 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 28-17 (.622) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Rays are 67-7 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Rays are 142-9 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .468 at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 727 strikeouts in 3,019 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 312 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays hitters have drawn 195 walks in 1,609 PA’s (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters are slugging .610 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (2,217 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 61 of 512 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH this season (2,217 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 660 of 9,234 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 137 of 2,250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 44 of 788 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Rays pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Leg, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): The Tampa Bay Rays placed RHP Shane Baz on the 15-day injured list., D15
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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