- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on Monday, September 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 71-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 71-65 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.95 Units / 99% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 17 games (+13.95 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.39 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 35 away games (+3.12 Units / 7% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games at home (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.74 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+8.69 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 68 games at home (+8.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 68 games at home (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 69-68 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -4.54% ROI).
- 71-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 71-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 3.66% ROI
- 59-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.8 Units / -13.24% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 71-65 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 3.7% ROI).
- 83-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 3.43% ROI
- 72-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.85 Units / 3.88% ROI
- 60-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.3 Units / -12.31% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 52% (209/399) on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (182/306) against Brayan Bello since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (328/591) against Brayan Bello since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (122/202) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (708/1,588) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .231 (12-for-52) against Aaron Civale on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .350 — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed an OPS of just .455 (87 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .740 — 99th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .358 (100 Total Bases / 279 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .506 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 54-3 (.947) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
The Red Sox are just 12-17 (.414) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 41-28 (.594) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Red Sox are 21-11 (.656) after a home win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays are 29-13 (.690) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Rays are 15-23 (.395) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting .187 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .372 (622 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .297 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 147 strikeouts in 427 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters are slugging .451 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .331 (5,149 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.49 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 121 times since last season — tied for 5th most in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 165 of 2,651 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 5 of 182 batters (3%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Alex Verdugo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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