Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 6

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays (75-58) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (67-69)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (6-5), 4.51 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (9-4), 2.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-135) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 63-66 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -190O 7.5 +100+110
Rays -1.5 +155U 7.5 -120-135

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+18.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Jose Siri 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Manuel Margot 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Harold Ramirez 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Isaac Paredes 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jose Siri 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Manuel Margot 0.5 -300 0.5 +195

Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jose Siri 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Manuel Margot 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rich Hill 3.5 -115 3.5 -125
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 116 games (+9.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.66% ROI).

  • 65-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -6.02% ROI
  • 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -5.77% ROI
  • 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -1.63% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-66 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.27% ROI).

  • 72-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.62% ROI
  • 58-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -6.63% ROI
  • 63-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.27% ROI

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,175/2,819) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (425/836) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (740/1,505) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (211/396) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .675 (130 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 1.055 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .231 (27-for-117) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .412 (134 Total Bases / 325 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .558 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .206 (14-for-68) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 99th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 4-50 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 3-53 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 29-8 (.784) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Rays are just 62-8 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Rays are 46-8 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Rays are 33-9 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rays have scored 1.57 runs per game (457/292) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Rays hitters have 1,873 strikeouts in 7,712 PA’s (24%) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays hitters have an OPS of 1.066 (77 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

Rays hitters have an OPS of .723 (3,451 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH (3,462 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 141 times since the start of last season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.

Rays pitchers have walked 316 of 4,891 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 752 of 10,889 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Rays pitchers have walked 60 of 1,193 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
  • Vidal Bruján (Rays): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Nicholas Pivetta (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.