- The Rays (75-58) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (67-69)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (6-5), 4.51 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (9-4), 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-135) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 65-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 63-66 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 +100 | +110 |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -120 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+18.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Harold Ramirez | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 116 games (+9.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-65 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.66% ROI).
- 65-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -6.02% ROI
- 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -5.77% ROI
- 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -1.63% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-66 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.27% ROI).
- 72-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.62% ROI
- 58-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -6.63% ROI
- 63-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.27% ROI
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,175/2,819) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (425/836) when behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (740/1,505) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (211/396) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an OPS of just .675 (130 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 1.055 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .231 (27-for-117) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .412 (134 Total Bases / 325 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .558 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .206 (14-for-68) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .334 — 99th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 4-50 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-53 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 29-8 (.784) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Rays are just 62-8 (.886) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Rays are 46-8 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Rays are 33-9 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored 1.57 runs per game (457/292) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Rays hitters have 1,873 strikeouts in 7,712 PA’s (24%) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of 1.066 (77 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .723 (3,451 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in close and late situations since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH (3,462 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 141 times since the start of last season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 316 of 4,891 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 752 of 10,889 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rays pitchers have walked 60 of 1,193 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D15
- Vidal Bruján (Rays): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Triceps, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Nicholas Pivetta (Red Sox): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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