- The Red Sox (71-75) are -125 favorites vs the Reds (58-89)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (1-6), 5.10 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-6), 3.81 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Red Sox vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 69-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 68-76 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | O 8 +100 | -125 |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | U 8 -120 | +105 |
Red Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+18.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 away games (+18.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 47 away games (+15.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 away games (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+13.70 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Reds vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +110 |
| Brayan Bello | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 72 away games (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 60 games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 72-69 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -0.78% ROI).
- 69-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -6.94% ROI
- 65-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 68-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -1.84% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-76 against the Run Line (-13.4 Units / -7.64% ROI).
- 56-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.25 Units / -11.71% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -5.5% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -4.14% ROI
Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (15/21) against Brayan Bello this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last eight starts dating back to July 6th — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 12.
Brayan Bello has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 25.1 innings pitched — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Brayan Bello has not allowed a home run in any of the last 42.1 innings he’s appeared — George Kirby has the longest active streak at 65.0.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (86/297) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 50% (37 SO in 74 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 42% (31 SO in 73 PAs) this month (3 games) — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 95th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (208/467) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 5-55 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Red Sox are 146-47 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Reds are just 44-7 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Reds are just 29-43 (.403) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Reds are just 11-38 (.224) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Reds are just 21-72 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (588 PA’s) this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .268 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .353 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Reds are batting just .244 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .300 (692 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Reds are batting just .238 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.16 (549.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,166 of 11,846 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 549 of 5,647 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 116 of 1,296 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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