Red Sox vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Royals
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Joshua Winckowski (4-5), 5.00 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (3-6), 4.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Red Sox vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 53-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 48-58 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +135O 9 +100-115
Royals +1.5 -165U 9 -120-105

Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 67.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 40 away games (+11.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 away games (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 29 away games (+10.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+12.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 59 games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
MJ Melendez 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Nick Pratto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +1200 0.5
Salvador Perez 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Dozier 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
MJ Melendez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Nick Pratto 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Nicky Lopez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Salvador Perez 1.5 +155 1.5 -225

Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
MJ Melendez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Nick Pratto 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Salvador Perez 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Greinke 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
Josh Winckowski 3.5 +110 3.5 -160
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+6.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 78 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+5.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+16.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 55-52 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 1.87% ROI).

  • 53-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -4.82% ROI
  • 47-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -7.01% ROI
  • 51-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.25% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 48-58 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -14.43% ROI).

  • 42-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -12.2% ROI
  • 51-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 51-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.45 Units / -4.65% ROI

Josh Winckowski has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to July 7th — the longest active streak is 6.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (17/32) against Josh Winckowski — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (9/15) against Josh Winckowski against right-handed batters — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 47% (8/17) against Josh Winckowski vs left-handed batters — tied for 9th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 36% — 12th Percentile.

Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (29/81) against Zack Greinke on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (35/247) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has thrown low pitches 69% of the time (790/1,139) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 99th Percentile.

Zack Greinke has located his pitches away 58% of the time (865/1,484) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Red Sox are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are just 2-41 (.047) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Red Sox are just 6-22 (.214) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Royals are just 3-29 (.094) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

The Royals are just 42-55 (.433) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Royals are just 32-4 (.889) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Royals are just 17-50 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .263 at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Red Sox have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Royals hitters have just 531 strikeouts in 2,777 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .365 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.

Royals hitters have just 632 strikeouts in 3,238 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.75 (481.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 2 of 61 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH this season (2,713 balls in play) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have walked 407 of 4,100 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have walked 206 of 2,355 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.