• The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Royals
• Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | RYTV

The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on May 18, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 pm in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Red Sox are 19-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 20-26 ATS.

Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 4-1, 3.21 ERA
• Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 1-3, 3.81 ERA

Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Willson Contreras has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+13.60 Units / 136% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 71% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+19.50 Units / 217% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+11.90 Units / 132% ROI)
• Carter Jensen has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 51% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 39% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.55 Units / 88% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 away games (+3.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.95 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 18-27 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -16.67% ROI).

• 19-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.95 Units / -24.45% ROI
• 20-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -15.16% ROI
• 25-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 6.04% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 20-26 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -14.63% ROI).

• 20-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -20.11% ROI
• 21-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -14.24% ROI
• 26-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 5.89% ROI

Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Red Sox are just 3-15 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.

The Red Sox are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Red Sox are just 4-8 (.333) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Royals (25th in runs scored).

The Red Sox are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Royals are just 15-4 (.789) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Royals are just 3-10 (.231) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.

The Royals are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Royals are just 20-27 (.426) this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .341 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .645 (1,312 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .329 at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .356 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Royals Hitting Stats & Trends

33% of Royals hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Royals hitters are slugging just .338 on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

The Royals are batting just .215 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .288 (894 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Red Sox pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 0.87 runs per game (40/46) in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Royals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — most in MLB.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 27% against the Royals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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