- The Red Sox are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Boston Red Sox (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Friday, September 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Red Sox vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 69-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 57-78 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -105 | -190 |
| Royals | +1.5 +100 | U 9.5 -115 | +155 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+10.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+12.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+9.65 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -190 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+2.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.74 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 67-67 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -5.06% ROI).
- 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.12% ROI
- 69-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 2.38% ROI
- 59-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.5 Units / -11.97% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 57-78 against the Run Line (-33 Units / -20.28% ROI).
- 41-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -38.3 Units / -27.52% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.4 Units / -5.66% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.5 Units / -3.75% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed a slugging percentage of .705 (31 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .434 — fourth Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of .376 (117 PA’s) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — third Percentile.
James Paxton has a strike rate of just 64% (242/381) when he’s behind in the count this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 69% — ninth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 67% of James Paxton’s pitches (339/507) with two-strikes this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 6.51 (142.1 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.94 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .432 (125 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of 1.184 (126 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .703 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 52-3 (.945) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are just 14-21 (.400) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Red Sox are 32-31 (.508) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Red Sox are 56-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 28-29 (.491) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Royals are just 4-17 (.190) after a road win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Royals are just 8-15 (.348) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Royals are just 12-29 (.293) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .374 (613 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .315 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Red Sox are batting .298 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .205 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Royals have won just 34% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.33 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.07 (954.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 120 times since last season — tied for 5th most in MLB.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have picked-off 16 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (573.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.23 (1173.0 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Back/Neck, Day-to-Day
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Brennan Bernardino (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D10
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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