- The Red Sox are -175 favorites vs the Royals
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Boston Red Sox (-175) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+145) on Saturday, September 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Red Sox vs Royals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 0-0 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -115 | O 10.5 -115 | -175 |
| Royals | +1.5 -105 | U 10.5 -105 | +145 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 82.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+12.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.10 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+13.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -600 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+2.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.74 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (204/389) against Tanner Houck since last season — tied for 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Tanner Houck has located his fastballs down 44% of the time (424/962) since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (32 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 94th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has recorded 27 of his 57 strikeouts (47%) vs left-handed batters with his slider since last season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 88th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has not allowed a hit to any of the last 27 batters he’s faced after reaching two strikes. — Michael Tonkin has the longest active streak at 36.
Alec Marsh has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (8/17) of opposing batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 67% — sixth Percentile.
Alec Marsh has a strikeout rate of 38% (9 SO in 24 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 3rd best in AL over the last week; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Alec Marsh has allowed an OPS of 1.112 (62 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .713 — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 56-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Red Sox are just 14-21 (.400) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Red Sox are just 15-19 (.441) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .566.
The Red Sox are just 3-125 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 9-81 (.100) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .360.
The Royals are just 5-40 (.111) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 8-15 (.348) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .529 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Red Sox are batting .187 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .355 (1,318 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 34% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.49 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.50 runs per game (51/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.65.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.07 (954.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (573.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.20 (1182.0 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Brennan Bernardino (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D10
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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