- The Red Sox are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Boston Red Sox (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Red Sox vs Royals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 70-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 58-79 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -125 | O 10 -105 | -190 |
| Royals | +1.5 +105 | U 10 -115 | +155 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Clarke | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 16 games (+13.95 Units / 79% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 47 away games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 52 away games (+4.49 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 34 away games (+2.12 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.84 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 68-68 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -5.13% ROI).
- 70-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.71% ROI
- 71-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 3.69% ROI
- 59-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.8 Units / -13.33% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 58-79 against the Run Line (-33 Units / -20.02% ROI).
- 42-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -37.6 Units / -26.64% ROI
- 67-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -4.25% ROI
- 66-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -5.24% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (12/35) against Chris Sale on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 33% (27 SO in 82 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (18/109) against Chris Sale on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 29% (96 SO in 329 PAs) this season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 92nd Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .471 (24-for-51) against Taylor Clarke on low fastballs since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .268 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .390 (30-for-77) against Taylor Clarke in close and late situations this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .337 (33-for-98) against Taylor Clarke this season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (52-for-174) against Taylor Clarke since last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — fifth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 57-2 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Red Sox are just 3-125 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 1-59 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Red Sox are 43-28 (.606) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 9-82 (.099) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 5-41 (.109) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Royals are just 29-29 (.500) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .313 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .372 (622 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .297 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting .187 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (2,512 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting just .208 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.49 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.50 runs per game (51/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.68.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (573.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Royals pitchers have picked-off 16 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D10
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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