- The Tigers are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta, 12.27 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen, 3.85 ERA
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium to take on the Detroit Tigers (-110) on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Lakeland.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Tigers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 9-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 5-7 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 9.5 -105 | -110 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +165 | U 9.5 -115 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Eric Haase has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 159 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 62 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 62 games (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-5 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 33.71% ROI).
- 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 35.62% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -3.65% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 5-7 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -11.59% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 15.75% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 42.75% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -53.38% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta walked 73 of 773 batters (9%) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (512/1,214) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Greinke had a strikeout rate of just 26% (73/281) with two-strikes last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 146 opportunities (4%) last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen had a strike rate of just 62% (234/377) when he’s behind in the count last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen walked 14 of 107 batters (13%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen walked 15 of 91 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
The average home run distance against Michael Lorenzen last season was 388.1 feet — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Tigers are just 6-68 (.081) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Tigers are just 64-86 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Tigers are just 31-50 (.383) on the road last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Tigers are just 7-34 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .265 against LHP last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .277 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (8,569 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .290 (2,893 PA’s) at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .608 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers walked 129 of 1,425 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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