- The Twins (66-61) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (62-67)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (3-5), 5.30 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-7), 4.33 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Tuesday, August 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 60-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 58-67 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+17.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+16.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+13.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+12.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 41 away games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 44 games at home (+15.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games (+15.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 47 games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 109 games (+6.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 125 games (+12.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+8.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-63 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -2.06% ROI).
- 60-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -8.3% ROI
- 56-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.25 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 60-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -0.68% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 58-67 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -6.76% ROI).
- 66-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.57% ROI
- 58-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -2.8% ROI
- 57-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -4.92% ROI
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .944 (17 Total Bases / 18 ABs) with runners in scoring position this month (5 games) — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — third Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OBP of .395 (114 PA’s) this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (69/214) against Kutter Crawford this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (58 Total Bases / 103 ABs) this month (5 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — second Percentile.
Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (58/130) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Chris Archer has located his fastball up for a strike just 45% (151/333) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (226/418) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 41 of Chris Archer’s 305 fastballs out of the zone (13%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Red Sox are just 2-51 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Red Sox are just 8-10 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 7-41 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-25 (.359) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting just .216 with two outs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Red Sox are batting .353 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .761 (1,623 PA’s) in the first 3 innings this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Twins hitters are slugging .603 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .569.
Twins hitters have just 57 strikeouts in 384 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .277 on the road over the last 14 days (3 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4 of 115 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.41 (480.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.73 (594.0 IP) at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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